베이지안 예시 풀이(Bayesian Problem example)

1번

At a certain stage of a criminal investigation, the inspector in charge is 60% convinced of the guilty of a certain suspect.
Suppose now that a new piece of evidence that shows that the criminal has a left-handedness is uncovered.
If 20% of population possesses this characteristic, how certain of the guilt of the suspect should the inspector now be if it turns out that the suspect is among this group?

0.8823529411764707

2번

After that, the new evidence is subject to different possible interpretations, and in fact only shows that it is 90% likely that the criminal possess this characteristic.
In this case how likely would it be that the suspect is guilty?

0.8709677419354838

1번과 2번을 서로 사전 사후로 영향을 안주고, 그저 범인이 왼손잡이일 가능성을 100%로 보느냐 90%로 보느냐 차이만 두었는데, 1번의 범인일 확률을 업데이트해서 하는 것도 생각해봐야겠습니다.